TITLE	Chi-Chi Earthquake-caused Landslide: grey prediction model for pioneer vegetation recovery monitored by satellite images
AUTHOR	Chi-Ming Yang Institute of Botany, Academia Sinica, Nankang, Taipei, Taiwan 11529, Republic of China Jan-Chang Chen Institute of Botany, Academia Sinica, Nankang, Taipei, Taiwan 11529, Republic of China Lan-Lin Peng Institute of Botany, Academia Sinica, Nankang, Taipei, Taiwan 11529, Republic of China Jr-Syu Yang Department of Mechanical Engineering, Tamkang University, Tamshui, Taipei County, Taiwan 25134, Republic of China Chang-Hung Chou Institute of Botany, Academia Sinica, Nankang, Taipei, Taiwan 11529, Republic of China
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ABSTRACT	We applied multiple SPOT satellite remote sensing data to evaluate the recovery rate of vegetation in the Chiu-Feng-Er mountain landslide area after the Chi-Chi Earthquake. The grey theory was also applied to predict the time required for pioneer vegetation to completely reclaim the non-rock landslide area, and this was compared with the results of linear, exponential, and polynomial regression analysis. While complete recovery of vegetation may take 5.2, 1.6 and 3.4 years predicted by the linear, exponential, and polynomial regression analyses, respectively, it may take 2.0 years according to grey analysis. On the basis of ground investigation, the recovery process of pioneer vegetation in Chiu-Feng-Er Mountain landslide may follow the equation of the grey prediction model, i.e. x(k+1)=72387.143e0.4704. This recovery process exhibited a lag phase of approximately two months.
KEYWORD	Earthquake-caused landslide; Grey prediction model; Pioneer vegetation; Recovery; Satellite images;
ARTICLE INFO	Botanical Bulletin of Academia Sinica, Volume 43 Number 1 January 2002, page 69-75, 7 pages
PUBLISHER	Institute of Plant and Microbial Biology, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China